Why are batteries so expensive?

There are two main drivers. One is technological innovation. We're seeing multiple new battery products that have been launched that feature about 30% higher energy density and lower cost. The second driver is a continued downturn in battery metal prices. That includes lithium and cobalt, and nearly 60% of the cost of batteries is from metals.

Will battery prices continue to decline in the next decade?

Rising raw material prices are challenging the long-standing consensus that battery prices will continue to decline in the coming decade.

Are lithium ion batteries going down?

Lithium-ion batteries are the most commonly used. Lithium-ion battery cells have also seen an impressive price reduction. Since 1991, prices have fallen by around 97%. Prices fall by an average of 19% for every doubling of capacity. Even more promising is that this rate of reduction does not yet appear to be slowing down.

Will battery prices fall in 2025?

Goldman Sachs Research now expects battery prices to fall to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025 — a 40% decrease from 2022 (the previous forecast was for a 33% decline). Our analysts estimate that almost half of the decline will come from declining prices of EV raw materials such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt.

How does raw material cost inflation affect battery prices?

While the impact of raw material cost inflation varies across the battery chemistry, we illustrate that every 10% change of different material prices leads to 0.1-1.2% change of the NCM 811 battery pack price as an example (Exhibit 17). A likely hiccup in 2022-23 before battery prices further deflate.

Are lithium-ion battery prices falling?

The price of lithium-ion battery cells declined by 97% in the last three decades. A battery with a capacity of one kilowatt-hour that cost $7500 in 1991 was just $181 in 2018. That’s 41 times less. What’s promising is that prices are still falling steeply: the cost halved between 2014 and 2018. A halving in only four years.